Agent Based Modeling of Effects of MAT (008)


Study Information

This supplement expands on the scientific impact of the parent grant (1R21DA044443-01) by estimating the impact of expanded access to medications for addiction treatment (MAT) in prisons and jails on post-release rates of overdose. This study used agent-based modeling, data collected through the parent study, existing surveillance data in Rhode Island (RI), and recently-published data from similar settings to understand how different MAT interventions in prison and jail settings impact overdose death post-release. Researchers utilized an agent-based model using historical data on overdose fatality rates in RI to forecast the number of opioid overdose fatalities over an eight-year period (2017-2025) under four different MAT strategies. State surveillance data from the four years preceding implementation of the comprehensive MAT program (2012-2016) will be used to calibrate the model. In order to compare the different strategies, researchers will calculate and compare the total number of overdose fatalities statewide as well as the number of overdose fatalities among those being released from correctional facilities over the eight-year period.

These models will incorporate advanced methodological techniques that will allow for the investigation of engaged treatment, program attrition, and other complex events on a population-level. Findings from this study may be used by health agencies, policymakers, and correctional systems to inform their efforts to expand MAT access.

Study Settings: Jails/Prisons

Study Team

PI: Brandon Marshall

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Study Aims

Researchers examined the impact of the following interventions on post-release rates of overdose:

• Standard of care/no intervention;

• Providing access to depot-naltrexone alone;

• Providing access to all three MATs to only those who were prescribed it prior to incarceration; and

• Comprehensive provision of all three MATs.

Research Type

Accelerator Supplement, Modeling Project