Agent Based Modeling of Effects of MAT (008)

This supplement expands on the scientific impact of the parent grant (1R21DA044443-01) by estimating the impact of expanded access to medications for addiction treatment (MAT) in prisons and jails on post-release rates of overdose. Led by Miriam Hospital, this project used agent-based modeling, data collected through the parent study, existing surveillance data in Rhode Island (RI), and recently-published data from similar settings to understand how different MAT interventions in prison and jail setting impact overdose death post-release. Researchers utilized an agent-based model using historical data on overdose fatality rates in RI to forecast the number of opioid overdose fatalities over an eight year period (2017-2025) under four different MAT strategies. State surveillance data from the four years preceding implementation of the comprehensive MAT program (2012-2016) will be used to calibrate the model. In order to compare the different strategies, researchers will calculate and compare the total number of overdose fatalities statewide as well as the number of overdose fatalities among those being released from correctional facilities over the eight year period.

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